On Tuesday, November 10, Russia brokered a new peace agreement between Armenia and Azerbaijan, the two countries that have been in military conflict over the disputed Nagorno-Karabakh region in the South Caucasus for more than six weeks. The BBC reported that a large crowd had gathered in the Armenian capital to protest the peace deal, while Azerbaijani Aliyev said the deal was of „historical significance“. The Kremlin will hold some 2,000 peacekeepers for five years in a three-mile-long area of the Lachin Corridor, the main road connecting Nagorno-Karabakh to Armenia. Experts say their main task will be to deter further Azerbaijani advances and defend Armenia, since Russia has a defense pact with that country. These forces will also oversee the construction of a road linking this corridor to Stepanakert that bypasses Shusha – highlighting the loss of this city by Armenia. For its five-year peacekeeping mission in Karabakh to be successful, Russia must work closely with Armenia and the de facto authorities in Karabakh. But Moscow also wants to avoid the danger of an Azerbaijani veto in extending the mission in 2025. This means maintaining the best possible conditions with Azerbaijan and assuring Baku that Karabakh is no longer a separatist zone. In early November, Azerbaijani troops tore the mountaintop shusha citadel from Armenian control, climbed the wooded slopes and fought hand-to-hand in the streets. The 9. In November, they beat Armenian soldiers along the road to Stepanakert, home to a population of about 50,000 ethnic Peacetime Armenians, and an even bigger battle seemed imminent.
After the signing of the humiliating ceasefire agreement on November 10, Pashinyan faced demands for resignation, not only from opposition parties, but also from President Armen Sargsyan (who is head of state but mainly has ceremonial powers) and heads of various branches of the Church. Pashinyan decided to fight for his position and blamed his predecessors for the defeat. Despite a dramatic drop in popularity compared to the dizzying ratings he enjoyed after the 2018 Velvet Revolution, he has so far managed to cling to power. President Aliyev said the agreement was of „historic importance“ and amounted to a „capitulation“ by Armenia. Echoing other ethnic Armenians in the region, Mikaelyan said he sees a clear path to lasting peace: Nagorno-Karabakh will be part of Russia. The idea seems far-fetched, but it has been spread over the years by political figures in Russia and Nagorno-Karabakh, but not by Mr Putin. Moscow`s commitment is not limited to peacekeeping. A lengthy television report on Russia`s Channel 1 showed Russian soldiers escorting returning displaced Armenians and carrying out demining, reconstruction and health care. Local Armenians from Karabakh were interviewed to thank Russian soldiers, politicians and Putin for saving them from destruction by Azerbaijan. Russia has long played a role in the conflict.
He is a major player in the region and one of the three co-chairs of the Minsk Group, diplomatic efforts to find a peaceful solution to the Nagorno-Karabakh dispute. 5 This publication was supported in part by the Aso Tavitian Initiative, made possible through a generous donation from the eminent philanthropist and trustee emeritus of the Carnegie Endowment for International Peace, Aso. O. Tavitian. This publication was also co-funded by the European Union`s Horizon 2020 research and innovation programme under Grant Agreement No 769886. This publication reflects the author`s point of view and the European Commission is not responsible for the use made of the information it contains. Following the signing of the agreement and the deployment of Russian peacekeepers, the defense ministers of Russia and Turkey signed a memorandum on the establishment of a joint Russian-Turkish observation center in Azerbaijan. [44] However, Russia insisted that Turkey`s involvement would be limited to operating on Azerbaijani soil from the observation center and that Turkish peacekeepers would not travel to Nagorno-Karabakh. [44] [45] Erdoğan`s role in the conflict also shows a continued willingness to internationalize his military power in order to simultaneously confront Russia and work with Putin to reach smart deals that reshape the geopolitics of the region on the basis of a populist-nationalist vision aimed at alienating the United States and the European Union. Aliyev made a good point about his willingness to ignore the US – unthinkable only a decade ago – by refusing to end hostilities after the US-brokered ceasefire on October 30. In a Nov. 1 speech in which he explained his position, Aliyev noted that he „sends delegations to negotiate.
but is counting on his fists to change the status quo. Therefore, the ongoing negotiations between Russia and Turkey – countries ready to use force in the region – will continue to shape the conflict without the Minsk Group making any effort to allocate resources to the conflict zone. In October this year, the two countries agreed to a ceasefire agreement, which was also brokered by Russia, but did not succeed. ? Express explained is now on Telegram According to the agreement, the two warring parties have pledged to exchange prisoners of war and the dead. In addition, the Armenian armed forces were to withdraw from the Armenian-occupied areas around Nagorno-Karabakh by December 1. A Russian peacekeeping force of about 2,000 Russian ground troops was to be sent to the region for at least five years, one of its tasks being to protect the Lachin Corridor, which connects Armenia and the Nagorno-Karabakh region. In addition, Armenia pledged to ensure the „security“ of the passage between the Azerbaijani mainland and its enclave of Nakhchivan via a strip of land in the Armenian province of Syunik. Russian FSB border troops would exercise control over transport communications. [5] [6] [7] Turkey will also participate in the peacekeeping process, according to the Azerbaijani president, who joined President Putin in the speech. In Azerbaijan, President Ilham Aliyev now believes he has made enough progress to demand peace and reconciliation on his terms, after bringing his country back after humiliating losses in the last Karabakh war in the 1990s. As Azerbaijani forces advanced, the cost of the offensive in terms of human lives and resources had increased, with thousands of its soldiers and hundreds of civilians reportedly killed (Azerbaijan refused to disclose casualty figures).
Had the conflict continued as far as Stepanakert, the capital of Nagorno-Karabakh, the resulting brutality could have further damaged Azerbaijan`s political position, especially among Azerbaijani gas customers in the West, who had expressed concern about Aliyev`s human rights violations and were already considering sanctions against arms exports to Azerbaijan. Armenia, Azerbaijan and Russia have signed an agreement to end the military conflict over the controversial Nagorno-Karabakh enclave. Turkey has also gained influence. The Turkish government strongly supported Azerbaijan in the war, and its side won the battle. As a result, Turkey now has stronger relations with the winning side. In addition, it appears that Turkey will form a joint peacekeeping center with Russia, which would give it even more influence in the region. However, experts say it is the most fragile proposal to date, and there are no clear details on what such an organization would look like or how it would work in practice. Armenia is also likely to seek an expanded role for Russian peacekeepers and a minimalist interpretation of the territories it has ceded. .